Natural Gas Consumption: Between 2007 and 2035

Today, most of the states encourage using natural gas rather than coal and oil to utilize in electricity generation, residential heating and industrial sectors in order to support the clean energy for lower green house gases. Natural gas as an environmental hydrocarbon than the oil and coal is expected to be increasingly consumed in the next decades.

According to the IEO2010, the natural gas consumption will increase from 108 tcf (trillion cubic feet) in 2007 to 150 tcf. The consumption of gas declined about 6 percent from 2008 to 2009 because of the global recession in the world. The demand will again increase after 2010 according to IEO2010.

Natural gas is a key energy source for residential heating, industry and electricity generation. The industrial sector accounted for approximately 40 percent of total world natural gas use in 2007, and it maintains its share through 2035. In the electric power sector, for example, natural gas is often an attractive choice for new generating plants because of its relative fuel efficiency, low emissions, quick construction timelines, and low capital costs.

Unconventional natural gases like tight gas, coal bed methane, shale gas and gas hydrates also increasingly become gas resources. In IEO 2010, the gas methane resources are not taken account but the recent studies reveal us the giant reserves of gas methane in the world expected to be exploited in the world.

World Natural Gas Consumption

Natural gas consumption in non-OECD will increase approximately three times as fast as consumption in OECD countries and the graph above reveals us this reality.

In North America, the US maintains its top consumption. However, the natural gas consumption in the US will decline until 2015 as a result of slow growth in electricity demand, completion of coal-fired plants currently under construction, and additions of new renewable capacity. After 2015, the demand will reach to its demand in 2007 by increase in demand of electricity. In Mexico and Canada the natural gas consumption will increase for industrial utilizes for instance for mining giant oil sand deposits in Canada.

In OECD Europe, the states encourage the natural gas for using in electricity generation and industrial sector. Because natural gas is less carbon-intensive than either coal or petroleum, it is a more environmentally attractive resource and thus is likely to remain an important fuel for Europe’s electric power sector development in the long term. The natural gas supply of Europe is a problem for the continent and the states search new ways to supply natural gas. (for more information about Europe natural gas supply, read the article)

In OECD Asia and Pacific countries, Japan, South Korea and Australian-New Zealand, the demand of natural gas will increase. However, in Japan the new nuclear energy projects will limit the demand of natural gas. In South Korea, the demand of gas for electricity generation is generally supplied from the LNG import. In Australia and New Zealand, the natural gas is utilized generally in industrial sector and the demand of gas in the industrial sector will increase until 2035.

In non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, natural gas is the primary energy source and the share in the energy consumption is about 50 percent. Russia, the second largest natural gas consumer after the US, is the biggest contributor for consumption in the region. In the IEO2010 Reference case, Russia’s natural gas consumption grows at a modest average rate of 0.2 percent per year from 2007 to 2035. As the country makes progress in liberalizing domestic natural gas prices to approach parity with international market values, increasing fuel costs for natural-gas-fired plants are likely to make them less competitive with other baseload generation.

The fastest increase in natural gas consumption will be expected in non-OECD Asia. Natural gas use in non-OECD Asia increases by an average of 3.5 percent annually over the projection period; from 10.5 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 27.5 trillion cubic feet in 2035. The giant economy like China and India and the developing countries in the region influence the increment. Both in China and India, natural gas constitutes the minor share of the energy demand.

In Middle East, natural gas demand increase by the new infrastructure, development of economic activities and domestic price subsidies. According to IEO 2010, the consumption of natural gas in Middle East will be double from 2007 to 2035. The share of natural gas consumption of industrial sector and electricity generations are 50 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Growth in industrial consumption is driven by the petrochemical industry, primarily in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and UAE. Several countries in the region have opted to import natural gas in the form of LNG. Kuwait started importing LNG in 2009, and Dubai plans to begin in 2010.

IEO2010 Reference Case indicates, in Africa, the electric power sector drives the increase in natural gas demand over the projection period, as Africa’s total natural gas consumption increases from 3.1 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 6.8 trillion cubic feet in 2035.

In Central and South America, natural gas use increases at a rate that is second only to the rate of increase in nuclear energy use. Natural gas demand increases on average by 2.3 percent per year, from 4.6 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 8.6 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In the continent, there is well-developed natural gas pipeline infrastructure however, the security of supply is not sufficient for this infrastructure.

Brijesh Ojha

MBA BTech